The hottest plastic price is stuck in the contradi

Plastic price: deadlocked in the contradiction between cost and demand

crude oil price

the international oil price rebounded strongly driven by the stock market after a short decline for two days. The closing price on Wednesday was only 1 cent away from the highest point since October last year. The fall of the US dollar also supported the oil market. After the close of the New York Mercantile Exchange, data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude oil inventories fell for three consecutive weeks, and international oil prices were further supported. However, crude oil rose for two consecutive days, which failed to offset the adverse impact of LLDPE's intraday shock and decline on the market. The mentality of merchants is slightly depressed, mainly focusing on positive shipment and profit locking. At present, the major regions of CNPC have been listed one after another, and the confidence of businesses has been greatly affected. The weak consolidation trend of the market will continue, and the downward pressure is still on. Transactions in the domestic PE market were very light in the afternoon, and transactions can be negotiated on the basis of quotation

at present, the listing trend of Sinopec and PetroChina has been very obvious, and most petrochemical enterprises have already taken action. In addition, coupled with the continued decline of the crude oil market, the market performance is particularly depressed today, but although the mentality has turned sad, there has been no significant decline in the quotation. The analysis shows that at present, there are basically no predictable positive factors that can promote the market to rise. On the contrary, the signal of a slight dip is more obvious, and the pressure of poor demand and high social inventory is more obvious. At present, the market is more worried about whether the ex factory price of petrochemicals will be adjusted downward than the full listing of petrochemicals. In addition, coupled with the continued decline of the crude oil market, the market performance is particularly depressed today, but although the mentality has turned sad, there has been no significant decline in the quotation. At present, the market is basically wrong, and the enterprise culture is the leader of the enterprise. There are predictable positive factors that can promote the market to rise. On the contrary, the signal of a small dip is more obvious - 310 polymer mortar for external wall insulation is more obvious, and the pressure of poor demand and high social inventory is more obvious

import status

linear quantity is not much. With the rise of futures, there are not many linear resources in the circulation area. Most of the resources flow to the futures delivery warehouse and turn into speculative inventory, but this inventory cannot be released in time, the demand side is still weak, and middlemen and downstream hold a wait-and-see attitude

spot market

the stock market and futures fell sharply again, and their popularity on Tuesday was just a flash in the pan. After the panic selling in the market on Monday, the bull market atmosphere disappeared, and the LLDPE futures market was difficult to support the spot market. LLDPE futures opened higher in the morning, and the spot was driven by certain positive factors. P the construction site of the 300000 t/a syngas to ethylene glycol and 50000 T/a methyl carbonate project of sinosalt Anhui hongsifang Co., Ltd. is Anhui Hefei Circular Economy Demonstration Park e. the quotation basically stopped falling and stabilized, and even some merchants raised their quotations slightly, and a small number of transactions can be achieved. Subsequently, LLDPE plunged sharply in the session, which adversely affected the spot market and made the transaction more difficult in the afternoon. The downstream demand is weak, and many businesses seek direction in the futures market. It is expected that the spot market will maintain a volatile market in the near future, making it difficult to make substantive improvements in transactions and increasing downward pressure

fund trends

the central bank issued the report on the implementation of China's monetary policy (the second quarter of 2009), which pointed out that the monetary policy should be "dynamically fine tuned". For the recovery of liquidity, all parties have expectations, and time is the focus of expectations. The attitude of the central bank further deepened the market's doubts about liquidity recovery. The stock market, which is the most sensitive to funds, fell continuously. Such equipment as the commodity market has a high desire for muscle friendly and lightweight plastic materials. The market immediately responded, reducing positions and declining, almost erasing the previous increase, and the rise in financial attributes ended temporarily. In this context, l's main funds are again divergent today. New funds from short sellers occupy the first place in short positions at one stroke, and the positions of other seats are significantly reduced; However, long funds showed no sign of significantly reducing their positions, and there was limited room for the decline of spot funds, showing confidence in the support of 11000 points in the future market

outlook for the future

the expectations and themes of the plastic future market in the early stage have been mostly digested. Whether it is the petrochemical expansion or the peak season of agricultural film in September, the funds have almost exhausted these themes. On the other hand, in order to maintain the stability of the market, PetroChina and Sinopec will support the domestic LLDPE price and maintain the spot market price of 11000 from the perspective of cost. However, the downstream demand is weak and insufficient to support the market, so the embarrassing situation of "price without market" will continue, and the plastic price will continue to be stuck in the contradiction between cost and demand

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